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Is it really a spring for the Arabs? Colleagues and friends are rather surprised by my lack of enthusiasm for the Arab spring. They expect a human rights campaigner like me who has spent the best part of forty years in the advocacy of human rights, to be over the moon at the changes taking place throughout the Middle East. The problem is that however much I long for democracy in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and then hopefully Syria and beyond, I cannot help seeing the situation though the prism of the Iraqi experience, and this leaves me deeply pessimistic. Democracy is a wonderful word. Rather like freedom, you can't not want it. In Iraq, the seductive tones of Blair and Bush persuaded us that a war in the name of democracy would free us from the appalling regime of Saddam Hussein, and offer a new dawn in the chequered history of the country. So now I watch events unfold in Libya and my delight at the end of the Gaddafi regime is tempered by fear for the future. Of course Libya and Iraq are not the same, neither in their history, demography or in the circumstances of the uprising. This is the point made continuously by members of the Transitional Council when asked about the comparisons between the two countries, and they are right. But what if a rapid move to a democratic representation of all the disparate Libyan groups , is not accompanied by social and economic stability? Well we shall have to wait and see, but what I cannot get out of my mind is that Iraq has a fully functioning constitutional democracy, with a parliament regularly in session (within Baghdad's heavily guarded green zone of course ) and yet for the people outside, life has deteriorated quite dreadfully . Security remains a major problem. Kidnapping, suicide bombing, and general lawlessness all continue, and minorities like the Christian community from which I come, have been largely forced out of the country. Reluctantly, all my close relatives except one, have fled abroad, in fear of their lives. Then there is the more insidious form of fear which accompanies poverty and lawlessness. A terrifying feature on the Iraqi website aljeeran last week (28 August) showed the very large numbers of young women and children forced to beg on the streets, and highlighted their sexual vulnerability. This is an entirely new phenomenon in Iraq. The right to security is paramount, but what about the right to clean water and power? Well most people have utterly given up on the expectation of a regular electricity supply and those who can afford it have generators, often shared by neighbours. The water supply is similarly feeble. It is suggested that neighbouring countries are taking more than their share, and the government is too weak to deal with the problem. The right to health care and education has been seriously undermined by the security problems, social chaos and the exodus of professional staff. I recently read that the status of Iraqi universities had declined since 2003, that is in a country which according to UNISCO reports had one of the best educational system in the region. Perhaps not the most important indicator of the country's decline but a telling one in a country which had a well respected education system including universal adult literacy. So, as a human right campaigner, I look at Libya with huge admiration for the bravery and idealism of the opposition, and yet fear for the prospects of all of these countries which run the risk of fracturing when the iron fist of the dictator is removed. I am not a political scientist and can't make judgements and predictions about each of these states, but as I said, I look through the prism of Iraq. From this, I know that the original joy at the overthrow of Saddam Hussein was gradually replaced by disbelief at the disintegration of the country, but for five, six, seven years my family and friends still assumed that their children would have a future there. I for my part, always assumed that I would one day be able to return to my homeland in safety and maybe spend a few months at a time in Mosul, the city of my birth. Now I have had to accept that this will never happen. Do not go to Baghdad unless you have to, is the advice, and do not go to Mosul at all because the city of your birth is a lawless ruin. I hope and pray that the people of Libya will do far better then we did.
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